Lohengrin
- Brampton Booster
- Aug 18, 2012
- Comment
After a lively discussion with my friends concerning a specific deck that was given to me, I will provide my points on the judgement. For any points to be made, it would be in the best interest to be supported promptly with statistical analysis, not opinions and situational fields that lie outside a reasonable probability.
The fight was simple. Pendragon versus Lohengrin in a Soul Paladin deck. Not so simple was the extreme failure of analysis. Everyone decided they don’t care about the math I do, balantly saying it is all theoretical and none of it applies to a real game. It is obvious then, they are meta players. Oh well. We can’t all get what we want.
General Clauses
Or, stuff that doesn’t concern any particular case/considerations.
Minus clause
Consider Pendragon can only thin the deck by one, but Lohengrin can thin multiple times. In both views, the thinning stops once a crossride occurs. At this point, the thinning gained from the unit is equal to the loss in which the unit you had to over. At any point, crossriding or the action of riding another unit of the same grade is always considered a minus regardless of superior riding and such. This is a huge reason why The End and company are so powerful, to make up for that minus. Riding reduces one card from your hand, but you must ride 3 times. The three times is countered by the twin drive and draw, and it is on your sixth turn that you get a ‘plus’ back.
The other point I want to mention is in fact, the ‘thinning’ chance of Lohengrin. It is very possible that you can soulcharge a trigger, obviously a minus in that sense(soulcharging something else is no biggy, as you lose nothing for your hand like Pendragon). But I want hard facts. Considering a normal Grade 3 ride, you should have sifted through (1[FV]+5[Starting Hand]+1[Draw]+1[Damage]+1[Draw] + 1[Drive] + 1[Damage] + 1[Draw]) about 12 cards in your deck more or less. In that span you should have (16/49 <=> 12/38) 12 Triggers, and calculating the chance of soulcharging a trigger is just as well 32%. Turning it around, the chance of soulcharging a NON-TRIGGER is 68%.
Now we go to Pendragon. Since his effect works on the next turn when you have 4 damage, we drop another (2[Drive] + 2[Damage->4] + 1) 5 cards. By checking the top five, we have (8/50 <=> 5/33) and plugging numbers in we have a cumulative probabilty of getting one or more Grade 3’s around 59%.
So…what does this mean? It means the chance for Pendragon to thin the deck is LESS THEN the chance for Lohengrin to thin the deck. In fact, Pendragon is worst, as you can only thin 1 card, and you need to take an additional damage to pull it off. In a drawn out game, yes, you lose cards faster but consider that Lohengrin hits for a consistent 21k, versus Pendragon for 16~19k. I think a battle to be drawn out much longer if you had lower powered attacks. Lohengrin causes one extra guard stage along with a higher chance of triggers for a few turns. Lohengrin has more power then Pendragon in the long term.
Winner: Lohengrin
Synergy clause
So how well does Pendragon work with the deck? Consider Soul Saver Dragon. Without Pongal to search her out, we still have 4 soul after her ride. Wonderful. And say you do search her out with Pongal? Great! You now done everything any normal Grade three could have done. But you get a free ride to her? For what reason? Basically, you are asking that the Pendragon you got her out with couldn’t have been another SSD? Wouldn’t that be better in terms of probabilities? Consider Palamedes. If Palamedes was in vanguard, then you have sucessfully completed in reducing the grade 3 count by one. Exactly circumventing his effect. In rearguard, Pendragon makes no difference in comparison to any grade 3, again. Consider Galahad. Pendragon could make the extra soul, if it wasn’t for the fact that you should of ridden Galahad in the FIRST place and put something else like a Pongal into the soul. Also, if you failed the GR2 ride, you have 3 soul to catch up to. Finally, The reason for an 11k vanguard is for DEFENSE. Galahad is meant for a long game, and allowing damage to be piled up is circumventing Galahad’s extra 1000. Consider an independant clause. Pendragon have no other use outside the first side, and riding a Pendragon over another proves your minus, which another Grade 3 is better off with. Pendragon is a back-up and therefore, he should not be in vanguard had you gotten a Galahad, and so anything you can make with Pendragon is the same as Lohengrin.
How does Lohengrin work with the deck? Consider SSD. Without Pongal to search, we will have 5 soul to use her ability. As I’ve said, searching with Pongal makes no difference on the VG. Consider Palamedes. In the WORST case you soulcharge a grade 3. The odds are lower then the definite provided by Pendragon. Normally, you won’t SC a GR3, and in this case you increased your chances to get anotehr GR3 and whatever. Consider Galahad. By chance, you may stuff in the other pieces, but that is too situational. Instead, you should think of it as a replacement soulcharge to fill up 5~6 soul for Galahad. Consider an independant clause. Lohengrin is able to use his own Megablast, but it should go without saying it is highly unlikely. Even so, the chance to pull it off is higher then a chain ride with Pendragon(11% lol).
Winner: Lohengrin
Soul clause
Pendragon when you missing GR3 on ride chain, 5 cards in the soul. Naturally, you’ll put an extra card into the soul, like Pongal. Can’t Lohengrin do the EXACT same? Pendragon when you missed the Grade 2 ride. Now Pendragon has 3 soul. To bring up the soul, you must put in 3 cards for Brogal, or 1 card for SSD(*Pongal*). With Lohngrin, you need to bring up 2 soul now. Or, if you want SSD, you can add in Pongal as well. Another benefit of soul charging is that, Lohengrin can plausably add in missing pieces. That is not a legitimate arguement however, But what is is the fact the Pendragon does NOT support the soul correctly. Pendragon is the exact same as any other Grade 3 if your going to ride SSD, since all GR3 will need 4 soul be fore the ride, and the best way to bring that up is with in fact, Pongal, not Pendragon. The chance to ride SSD from the deck is now 1/5 of the 59% chance we had before. From the hand, that means you did nothing that any other Grade 3 could have done.
Back to the 3 cards for Brogal, it is just unfamtomable. to do will be to like, put 2 Margals and a Pongal into the soul. Just for Brogal to work? Can’t you just wait two turns so Lohengrin instead makes it all happen automatically WITHOUT minusing cards from your hand?
Galahad chain complete universe
Chance: 1/4 games
Consider Galahad and Pendragon after you completed the line. Pendragon can’t do anything, and you shouldn’t really consider Lohengrin’s potential counterblast. Nonetheless, Lohengrin has a chance to actualy do something.
Winner: Lohengrin
For each ‘case’ below, we need to consider Lohengrin against each case of Pendragon, which then we can compare results.
[Galahad chain incomplete] universe
Chance: 3/4 games
For each condition below, consider you have the option of having either Pendragon or Lohengrin at hand.
[Grade 3 miss] Condition
Chance: 1/2 out of 3/4 games, OR 3/8 games
Consider condition that you completed the first and second ride, but missed the Grade 3.
Turn 1 scenario
Consider plausible boosters in each case below.
Since you have all the pieces for a 11k Galahad, it would stand to reason to obtain a Brogal behind the vanguard, or Toypugal so when Galahad makes his appearance he sports 20k.
Case Lohengrin: A power boost of 2000, plus 1 deck thin
Lohengrin has 6 in the soul at this moment. A support from Brogal meets a 21k, and a support of Toypugal w/another Grade 3 is 21k.
Case Pendragon: A power boost of 5000
Pendragon has 5 in the soul at this moment. A support from Brogal meets a 21k, and a support of Toypugal w/another Grade 3 is 24k.
24k makes no difference to 21k in terms of shielding, therefore Pendragon is no better then Lohengrin. Lohengrin however has the small added benefit of thinning the deck by one.
Winner: Lohengrin
Turn 2 Scenario
Assuming you did not get a GR3 Galahad within the 3~4 cards(2 Drive check + Draw/Draw trigger)
Case Lohengrin: A power boost of 2000, plus 1 deck thin.
By now, you will have 7 cards in the soul. A Megablast is plausible, but unlikely. Having no Galahad is completely fine, as you still aim at the 21k mark.
Case Pendragon, no grade 3 ride: The worst case scenario. You are stuck with Pendragon. No thin, no power. Just a vanilla vanguard hitting for a vanilla 16000. I don’t even have to say it but -
Winner: Lohengrin
Case Pendragon, Palamedes ride: Considering you had a Grade 3 that you didn’t call last turn that ISN’T Galahad[%], you now have a wonderful Palamedes. A +3k really changes Lohengrin’s case of +2k. Neither side wins in this case, altough you really wouldn’t want a Palamedes VG. Why? It’s because he can actually lose the ability is you strike any grade 3 rearguard. Considering you should only have 2 GR3 during that moment, a complete assualt will render Palamedes powerless. But that’s not the catch. The catch is, Palamedes offers nothing more then what Lohengrin can offer.
Winner: Luigi
Case Pendragon, SSD ride: Unlike a Pongal, you have no decision in the time you can bring this unit out. Even being a hidden ride, it is extremely easy to relegate what ability you have, considering a smart opponent will aim attacks on the Rearguard. Even to any other fighter, once you pass off this ability they have about 3 damage. They can let one or two attacks through, and SSD is useless(Note that SSD is a FINAL TURN option). Not only that, SSD also negates Brogal’s effect, so you lost more then you think. Consider also, that you have all the pieces of (exodia) Galahad, and had you waited you may actually be able to ride it. Now, there is NO chance of using Galahad and NO chance of using Brogal and NO chance of using another SSD.
Winner: Lohengrin
Case Pendragon, Galahad ride: The ONLY win for Pendragon. Blalantly, this completes all conditions. Galahad now has 6 soul, right on the dot, and thins the deck by one. Now, let’s look at the CHANCE.
Chance to pick up galahad before checking the top 5 cards: 89%. You must be unlucky…
Chance to pick up 1/3 plausible Galahad by 33 cards, checking the top five: 40%
Looks good? We still have to add the previous chances, so it goes to;
Chance: 4/10 out of 1/2 out of 3/4 games, OR 3/20 games
WOW. In short, only 3/20 times Pendragon is better then Lohengrin. Hat’s off to you. You must also be unfourtunate to NOt get a Galahad within that time as well. I could end the article right here, but I need to complete it for its full effect.
Winner: Pendragon
[Grade 1 miss] OR [Grade 2 miss] condition
Chance: 1/2 out of 3/4 games, OR 3/8 games
Here is where Lohengrin takes over.
Case Lohengrin: A power boost of 2000, plus 1 deck thin.
By now, you will have 7 cards in the soul. A Megablast is plausible, but unlikely. Another unlikely scenario is to soulcharge the missing piece, both I do not care about. The biggest thing here is that it is very easy to set up Brogal and SSD quickly, while thinning and providing continuos 21k attacks.
Case Pendragon, no grade 3 ride: Again, the Worse case, and even worse this time is that Brogal will be sitting out of the game for good.
Winner: Lohengrin
Case Pendragon, Palamedes ride: Same argument as the other condition.
Winner: Luigi
Case Pendragon, SSD ride: 4 soul. A waste of a SSD, a waste of soul, and a waste of Pendragon. Better for Pongal to do something.
Winner: Lohengrin
Case Pendragon, Galahad ride: Brilliant, ride a Galahad at 9k. No way around it, unlike Lohengrin that can POSSIBLY charge the other pieces. As I’ve said, that’s not a plausible arguement. Instead, what is is the fact that a 9k Glaahad is even WORSE then a 10k Lohengrin, able to hit, once again, for 21k and over.
Winner: Lohengrin
Final Standings
~ Pendragon 1 ~
~ Lohengrin 10 ~
~Luigi 2 ~
