Is Vanguard Lucky?
- Brampton Booster
- Jun 11, 2012
- Comment
In Cardfight!! Vanguard there are these things called trigger checks: Some people then assume that this game is “luck based” but that is entirely incorrect. I just can’t stand that notion, and so here is an EXTENSIVE explanation how it cannot be considered a ‘lucky’ game.
Make sure you know the basics of the game before you start reading it. If you don’t, then it’s kinda pointless to read it. It also shows your ignorance in actually thinking it’s luck-based without a clue about why it is.
So, here we go:
All card games, whether it is something simple such as Go Fish or more expansive like Magic, contain chances. Any card you draw you acquire it from an unknown value – the deck – and the aim is to create better chances to acquire the card you want. Such as a coin toss, flipping a heads or a tails is in a value of 50%: but the true graph resembles this:
Courtesy: Wolfram Alpha
Unless you’ve already taken a course on this, you won’t know how to calculate this random bunch of data. For calculations of acquiring a trigger from a deck you can either use stattrek or the sidebar calculator
Useful Triggers
Now about that Trigger, supposedly people with a lot of luck will win because they ‘luck-sack’ and keep getting triggers. First of all, Triggers are essential to the game and if a person isn’t expecting them and guard with a number that say, one trigger will allow them to be hit, they are doing it wrong. They need to factor in the possibility of that trigger and how that will affect the current stance. Sure, getting triggers every time is wonderfully lucky, but that’s mathematically unrealistic.
How useful is a trigger? A critical and stand trigger has no effect when you damage check them. Criticals puts all your eggs into one basket while stands don’t give much push. A Heal only works if you have equal or more damage (Which makes you run into the problem of damage management). Draw triggers are more useful on your opponent’s turn as it has 5000 Shield, making it no different then a normal unit otherwise: It can even mess up your trigger checking. The three ways you get cards are by: draw, drive, and damage.
Triggers are only useful in 1~2 of the three places (For Triggering, not what shield it can carry)
If you keep checking normal Units and drawing Triggers, that’s okay because your getting a sampling of the cards.
Okay, so how likely are you going to get your triggers?
Opening
Now, let’s put the ratio of getting the following number of triggers in your opening hand:
At least one: ~87.6%
At least two: ~53.2%
With mulligan, another handy mechanism to take advantage of, we put back the two triggers and possibly a third card if you don’t have all the grades in your hand:
At least one trigger after 3-card mulligan with none in hand: ~58%
At least two trigger after 3-card mulligan with none in hand: ~11.6%
Triggers again? Well duh, you put them back. If you do the math about a third of all our games will start with a trigger in your hand. If you put back two because you have all the grades, the chances decrease by ~0.25% for both. The more triggers you put back increase the chance to draw them again. However the chance to get a trigger after putting one back is 1/3, much better then the other numbers. This means ~63% of our games will have one trigger in our starting hand, and possibly more.
(I’ll stop putting the ~ sign; it is implied)
So the ratio of triggers to the number of cards in deck on your first turn should be 15/43.
What’s the chance of getting a trigger on the first drive check? 35%
Chance of getting a trigger on damage check: 35%
So it’s a third. Lucky people get their advantage right? Not really: A trigger in the opening is not necessary advantageous. Your opponent is usually not guarding that attack and the extra effect usually doesn’t apply. Plus, you just removed one trigger in your deck, lowering the chance of getting another one.
A trigger can be inconvenient if you want an attack through, or forcing to draw another trigger by the Draw Trigger. Also, they fall below the necessary power making them a guard only card – You cannot attack with give enough power since you don’t have the offense that you would have if you gotten a different card. And for offense, you might not want a ealry Critical, as the new Limit Break will give you a tough time before your ready.
But once we are in grade 3 we step into the Middle game and get about one trigger every turn.
Getting at least 1 trigger in twin drive with 11 triggers : 33 cards: 56.25%
Getting 2 triggers in twin drive with 11 triggers : 33 cards : 10.4%
If you have a grade three, luck is not necessary as the math proves you will get Triggers. Grade three’s greatly reduce the margin of chance. One should expect to get two triggers every three turns.
And get at least one double Trigger or three one trigger in a row at least once a game.
The sampling of cards you get every turn (damage checking and drawing) before you Twin Drive will let you see the phasing of the cards and predict when a trigger will show up. If you don’t get a Trigger in damage and draw, then you can bet your twin drive will sport a Trigger. Like wise, if you keep drawing Triggers mess up your deck a bit by removing cards from it faster or slower. If you lose, it is because you were not keeping track of you and your opponent’s triggers, the cards that were being played, and everything in you and your opponent’s open zones. You did something wrong. The possibility of getting Triggers in Vanguard is much more then other games and it allows anybody, lucky or not, the ability to get Triggers.
The rule of 16
It doesn’t even have to be with how you’re fighting. It could go down how you built your deck. Every card in vanguard needs to be placed with a purpose, a back-up for for another and a general use card. Limiting one area will create stupid hands that you can’t use their effects properly since you made it so it only works in one specific situation. Vanguard does not work like that. From the grade ratio to the Trigger ratio, you need to carefully think about each card. A deck has exactly 16 Triggers, no more, no less; and it can only be one of the four types[HEAL],[STAND],[DRAW] and [CRITICAL]. That means you will ALWAYS know how many triggers your opponent has.
Having less many seem stupid, but it creates another advantage: It increases your ability to attack and ride and so the opponent has to guard more. They trade off and everything is equal. Having more Triggers ruins your grade ratio and you can become Grade Locked. It is fixed so you can PREDICT when a trigger will come out. A fixed amount of cards in your deck and a fixed amount of Triggers in your deck will create a fixed calculation.
The largest point – Information Concealment
Information concealment is the leading reason why vanguard is not lucky. Normally, only the player knows what cards they have. Each turn, a player draws one SECRET card, a card that can be used to defeat the opponent. That’s true in all card games and is the sole reason why many games are won(because you didn’t expect a ceratin card to be played). But in Vanguard, the idea of Information Concealment is next to nothing. The First vanguard tells a great deal of how a fighter will plan and pursue their Winning Image. Considering how many cards are played before the grade 3, you should know 2/3 of the cards in a players hand. And now with twin drive, with every 1 card being drawn, you learn another 2 cards in the hand, even more if they use the cards they draw instead of what they reveal. Taking into the account that you now have a sufficient sampling to guess every card in their hand AND deck. After you play a game with someone, you should be able to whip out a piece of paper and write out the entire decklist assuming they play meta. This creates more of a chess feeling, making you dependent on getting your opponent to misplay. And to misplay is to get Triggers!
Getting a Trigger in Vanguard is the EXACT same as bringing out a concealed drawn card in any card game. It creates a hidden advantage that the opponent did not expect. Getting a card that you want in Yugioh in your opening hand is only 30% maximum(in a 40 card deck with 3 copies), and afterwards every turn you go by you have a 9% chance. Vanguard has it so you have a 36% chance and a 25% chance every turn to get the card you need. To remove this hidden ‘luck’ that the Yugioh developers had they made searching cards, but this means that not only do you have to get and use this searching card, you also push out the REAL cards in your deck that you really want. Sangan and Foolish Burial kinda hop in the Ban wagon though. Why? Because it destroys the intention of random drawing and tips the balance of the game. But without it, the game becomes luck based as you hope to get the card you need.
The Trigger Check greatly reduces the amount of luck. By acquiring more cards (3 a turn) and with a smaller population (49 after Starting VG) You will have a much greater chance of acquiring the cards you need. There are fewer effects to search because Twin Drive does that automatically. It greatly reduces the need for certain cards that in Magic, you might not draw enough of and so you need to put more searchers(Reducing what can be in your deck again). The Drive also stops Grade locking, if you randomized it correctly. In a deck of eight grade 3’s: 3/5 of the time you will get a grade 3 in your starting hand, 2/5 you don’t. But that can be saved by stacking, thinning, searchers, damage checks and the ever obvious draw and drive check. How fast can you get a land to your hand if you have no mana to pay for?
Randomization
Now what if you keep getting bad draws? Maybe then you should seed, or sufficiently randomize your deck and have triggers appear in a constant trace. Without it you might be stuck with ‘bad’ hands. By bad, it’s not Mana screw bad like in Magic, but rather you are stuck without anything to do. You can never have a unusable hand if you shuffle correctly since cards have multiple uses and your getting that random sample. Triggers while set at 16 can change in type of trigger: Unlike changing land, changing a trigger base creates a new environment of play even if all the other cards are the same.
You will then need to be able to phase the triggers of your deck: Taking a damage or drawing an extra card can resync your deck, and your opponent can also take advantage of that and knock you out of phase.
An example I have is in the Opening Draw and Drive check. Because the ratio of triggers settles at 1/3 you can take the damage and reap the benefits of a trigger pulled by probability. In reality, they don’t leave a traceable pattern but rather the mathematical theorems allow you to get more triggers then if you did not use the math.
You can also introduce units that not only for Triggers but also other cards, such as General Seyfried with an effect if you get a Grade 3. Because the deck has Grade 3’s that reintroduce themselves into the deck your chances of getting something is not 11/33 but 21/33. Not getting something is unreasonable then wit Twin Drive.
And even if you are lucky, don’t try to push it. Triggers don’t have enough use for lucky people. Here’s an example field:
The opponent attacks with his 11k unit
A lucky person goes like this: Oh, I can let this attack through, get a trigger, and guard the next attack with only 5000 since I got that trigger.
Stop right there, what happens if you don’t get a trigger? That means you need to guard the next attack with 10000. If you had guarded the first attack for 5000 and let the other attack through, it has the same outcome. Oh wait, it’s actually better since you don’t have to rely on a TRIGGER. And the beneficial effect of that trigger still applies to you regardless.
Another example with the same field, but no defending cards and five damage:
You attack with your 16k unit and go, ya, I can beat you. They get a heal trigger and you curse because they luck sacked. Now the opponent is too powerful for your attack to hit. If you had attacked with the 11k unit first, it did not matter if they got a heal trigger as you still have another attack (at 16k).
The Reason for Triggers
But why are Triggers in the game? I mean you proved how it isn’t chance so what is it used for?
To manipulate the impact of misplays. When you guard an attack on a vanguard you need to factor in Triggers, but when none are revealed you lose advantage. But when you attack, the possibility of your attack landing with a Trigger can also get your opponent to misplay. You need to be able to know when your opponent will likely reveal triggers and guard with that exact amount, and not more. This requires lots of tracing and feeling to get the hang of. Obviously, there is no definite distribution but by calculating it the amount of misplays will be lowered. New players do not have that mentality and so they usually lose.
Triggers, as I’ve said, is the concealed card of Vanguard. Cause it’s almost exactly like chess, with pieces arranged from the start, and it’s up to you to use those triggers correctly; and remember that you know each other’s deck in general and so therefore Triggers are needed to create a ‘surprise’ move in chess. (Like 5. Nxe5!)
And obviously, the excitement of triggers is much like the excitement of drawing the perfect card. In each case, both are by random chance (VG less so cause there are more triggers)
Real Scenarios
Triggers love this random girl. She practically gets triggers for every single check. Here is a possible game:
It is the second turn and she attacks with her vanguard. She gets a critical. She goes on to win the game.
She probably doesn’t know it, but that trigger knocked her into her trigger phase and knocked the opponent OUT of their triggers. And every time she gets an attack you don’t want through she knocks you out of your trigger phase again. There is two ways to get back at this; throw her off the trigger phase or get back into phase. To do both is to draw more or less, but most people just pile on and hope to get their own triggers.
Second Scenario: She gets a bunch of triggers but without power she spams grade 1 units:
This time, triggers love her so much she has no useful attacking units. That means even though she’s getting offensive triggers (and drawing normal cards) she is still playing a defensive game. The opponent can just guard one attack, instead of worrying about the trigger power added to other units. Finally, I put 4 perfect guards in my decks. Perfect guarding nullifies any amount of power, trigger or no trigger, so by putting 4 perfect guards you reduce the advantage Triggers get. Almost all metagame decks have 4 perfects, though a couple have 3.
Anime Scenario
The final explanation is Aichi’s final battle with Ren. *Spoilers to follow, if you care*
Ren attacks with 23k. He has 5 damage while Aichi has four. But his vanguard has two critical (by an effect) to finish him off. Aichi knows he need to defend for at least one trigger, so he puts down 30k. Ren, using Psyqualia (An ability that lets you check tricks) gets a heal (that makes him at 4 damage now) and a draw (Increasing hand size).
Wow, That’s gg. But wait, Aichi gets a Heal trigger! OMG wtf how did that happen it’s probably a luck sack pull that and for epic plot twist because no one knew the main character will do such a thing.
No, it’s because Aichi did not get many triggers and the chances of him getting a heal trigger was very high (compared to normal) at that instant.
The it is Aichi’s turn. Stand, Draw and Ride, Attack with rearguards and the the vanguard. Guess what Ren did. Believing Aichi pulled a fluke he guards an attack that needed 1 to pass, although he had an INTERCEPT unit so he needed two to pass. An Aichi drive checks one, nothing.
So now we have -> Trigger (Heal) -> No trigger (Draw) -> No Trigger (First Check)
What now? There is a 32% chance to get a Trigger normally making it a ONE IN THREE Chance.
Oh look! two cards went by and there is no trigger? Hmm, and he hasn’t gotten a Trigger yet?
Say a 16/49 deck has a 33% chance for any one draw, but 3 makes it 70%! Wow! You don’t have to be lucky to abuse the math.
It’s more as the game progresses, since it’s not an exact 32% ratio, but you get the idea.
Final Message
I have put a lot of crazy stuff that you might not even understand now, but if you take the time to look through my metagame lessons you’ll get it eventually. But now you know, even if you only understood one part, triggers just ain’t that lucky.
You can still say things like: “Your so lucky” and “That’s impossible, you cheated” and “OMG you have Psyqualia”. But when you take it apart and bring it down to the to the wire, Vanguard is just as lucky as the next card game, and in a few cases even less so. But Vanguard is much more wholly spectacular and epic then those other games.
Big help from Alice’s articles:
http://vmundi.blogspot.ca/2012/04/chance-time.html
http://vmundi.blogspot.com/2012/04/sufficient-randomization.html
http://vmundi.blogspot.com/2012/04/trigger-phasing-synch.html