Making grade 3 searchers work
- Brampton Booster
- Feb 28, 2014
- Comment
I lie. Since I write up a report after my research I can tell you not to run them. But let’s be blissfully ignorant and start off with declaring some numbers:
Probability_Calculator ChanceToGetMin1(0,6,4) = 0.67171555
Or about 67% to get a certain grade 3 on turn three assuming you run 4. That also means that (1-.67)*.67 = 22% of the time you’ll have to ride the ‘other’ grade 3. And the remaining 10% is for failing to get either (and that’s after you have the other ride pieces)
Chance to pull any grade 3 from the searcher 1-(41*40*39*38*37)/(49*48*47*46*45) = 0.60700
Chance to pull the specific grade 3 from the searcher 1-(45*44*43*42*41)/(49*48*47*46*45) = 0.35929
The generic deck
So we look at two possibilities:
The normal, non searcher deck
(1) 67% * [Advantage with main] + 22% * [Advantage with backup]
The searcher deck
(2) 67% * [Advantage with main – 0.40] + 12% * [Advantage with main] + 19% * [Advantage with backup – 1]
12% comes from multiplying 33% by 35.929%. Since we want (2) better then (1):
0.67(M-0.4) + 0.12M + 0.19(B – 1) – 0.02 > 0.67M + 0.33B
0.79M + 0.19B – 0.46 > 0.67M + 0.33B
0.13M – 0.13B > 0.46
0.29M – 0.29B > 1
~roughly speaking~
The overwhelming pluses
Well let’s say your backup gives you no additional advantage* (generic 12k beat stick) while the main gives you a +3 throughout the game. Is it worth it?
*Note: since both grade 3’s twin drive, we cancel their advantages out and are left with net 0.
0.29(3) – 0.29(0) ? 1
0.87 ? 1
So no, you are better suited to having no starter at all! VG must supply 3.5 units of advantage to cope with the shortcomings of the searcher.
But after 3.5 you actually do get more advantage then a non searcher! Very important find!
Oh, but what if the either of the following occurs:
- A different starter can garner you a +0.5.
- The other grade 3 has a on-ride or other ability that provide a plus 0.5?
In both cases your vanguard will work overtime, having to give you +4.5 to justify a searcher!
The inexcusable negatives
Looking at the equation you can also go in reverse, have the backup so bad at vanguard you actually minus for riding it (then if you just stuck with a grade 2). Not as easy to do, as your disadvantage must outweigh your vanguards advantage + additional!
So let’s have an OP grade 3 whose effect works in RG/hand/soul/drop/deck but has no effect and 3k as vanguard. That’s like a -6. Your vanguard only really provides a +2, but that’s fine because your backup is so good. Should you consider a searcher?
0.29(2) – 0.29(-6) > 1
1.16 > 1
Yay! I can say that there a reason to use this sonofafag. What’s that? There are no grade 3’s like that? Well you are right there.
The negligible selection
Some other things I will just skim over, provide as a list since lists are convenient
- Break rides: Even if your breakride generates an insane amount of advantage, chances are your backup will also have some sort of advantage as well and not some generic throw-in.
- Crossrides: Calculations are a bit tougher to do since you need to account for pairs, but crossrides have enough pluses by themselves to make sure you don’t pass the 1 mark.
- 8k 9k Grade 3’s: This is a severe handicap and in you could try a searcher. But decks that have those specific cards have better starters and superior builds.
- Restraint: These are bad units in general. Most likely you’ll have multiple backup plans for something like this, reducing a searcher’s usefulness.
- 6 grade 3’s: Using that many will artificially make the searcher seem more effective than it is. (But it is for that case)
- 10+ grade 3’s: Presumably you want a checker to generate advantage. I’d like a very solid backup for this vanguard, so it gives searchers a run for its money.
So, is there any deck so far that actually need a grade 3 searcher? I can cheat a little bit and declare the Musketeers have a nice purpose for one. In the optimal deck you’ll find the generic 12k grade 3 and Cecilia. And her advantage is legendary, by having something that amounts to +2 as well as her efficiency roulette (which can also generate another +2 or +3). But otherwise, I highly advise against using searchers.